How US slowdown will hit Indian stocks

As I have outlined before in many previous articles, I remain of the view that the United States is heading for a severe growth slowdown and most probably a recession in 2008, and this will be negative for stock prices globally.
As discussed before, in a recession-type of an environment, even a Fed determined to keep cutting rates cannot save the markets. All the bullishness surrounding Fed easing cycles are true provided the US were to not slip into a recession; otherwise all bets are off.
However, given the importance for investors of getting this call right, it is worth highlighting the contrarian view. There is a large body of opinion that the Fed can save the US economy and that a recession is an unlikely outcome. The bulls also feel that it is unlikely that inflationary tendencies will surface to slow the ability of the Fed to continue easing.
This camp is understandably a lot more positive on the markets and sees any weakness as a huge buying opportunity. I have found the arguments in this connection by the folks at Gavekal to be the most cogent.
The more positive camp bases their view on the following:
1. They point out that housing slumps in the past seem to be very highly correlated with recessions only because historically, these slumps were caused by very high interest rates. The real cause of the economic slump was the high interest rates and not the housing market downturn.
The bulls argue that the slump in housing was a byproduct of the high interest rates leading to a recession and not a cause of the recession. The bulls thus continue to argue that a housing slump not accompanied by high interest rates is not going to be as corrosive on the broad economy as is commonly believed.
Today's environment is clearly one of low and still falling rates. This thesis to an extent has been borne out by the statistics on growth till date, which continue to show the other components of the US economy continuing to grow even as housing has caved in.
Of course, the flip side to this argument is that even though rates have not spiked, the recent dislocations in credit have severely impacted its flow, which could potentially be as damaging as higher interest rates. One needs to track the extent of dislocations in credit flow to judge if the other sectors of the US economy can continue to decouple from housing.
2. The second argument of the bulls is that you have to break up the impact of the housing slump into two components -- the direct impact of falling housing investment on the economy and employment and the indirect impact of falling house prices on consumption.
The direct impact will be felt through weakness in all aspects of employment related to the housing sector, as well as a severe drop in the rate of housing investment as new homebuilding activity drops. At its peak in 2005, housing investment was over 6 per cent of GDP and has already fallen to below 4.5 per cent.
Before it stabilises, this ratio could drop further to around 3 per cent. While this falloff in investment is significant and will be a drag on the economy, what concerns investors far more is the potentially damaging wealth effects of falling house prices on consumption.
For a drop in the share of housing investment from 6 per cent to even 3 per cent by itself cannot push the US into a recession, that can only happen if consumption more broadly were to get hit. Strategists like Gavekal have argued that given that the top 20 per cent of US households consume more than the bottom 60 per cent, a housing downturn focused on the sub-prime borrower will not have as severe a fallout on economy-wide consumption as the bears fear.
They have argued that as long as interest rates remain low and employment and income growth continues in the non- residential segments of the economy, the damage to consumption should be more muted and contained than the bearish view. The continued stability of growth ex the construction sector lends some credence to this view.
3. The third leg of the bull case is based on a research paper released by the Fed in 2005, laying out a relationship between housing and trade. The paper makes the case that the collapse in housing will be largely offset by an improvement in US trade figures.
This conclusion seems to be backed by recent trade data, which show exports growing by 16 per cent and offsetting the -20 per cent drag from housing.
Basically the bulls make the argument that the weak dollar, falling yields and surge in liquidity will do enough to boost the economy and counteract economic woes induced by financial markets.
These arguments have validity, and at least we can see a construct in which a recession is not a foregone conclusion for the US.
However, markets, while initially reacting with euphoria post the initial 50 basis point Fed cut, have pretty much retraced their entire move and are now hovering at mid-August lows once again. The markets once again seem to be pricing in a recession.
The biggest area of concern has to be the rapidly deteriorating labour market situation in the US. The one indicator that investors must track from here on is the employment report -- any further weakness and a recession will be pretty much baked in the cake. The other indicator on the real economy worth tracking is the ISM survey of purchasing managers, any break in this below 50 will also be a significant negative forward-looking indicator.
The question, of course, is that even if the US were to slip into a recession as I believe, then can the emerging market (EM) equity asset class continue to decouple, as many investors continue to believe?
Certainly the price action seems to imply that this is what will happen, as most of the large EM markets are significantly above their mid-August lows. While the case for a decoupling of the real economy seems quite strong, I am not sure financial markets can decouple as seamlessly as everyone seems to expect.
I do believe that the biggest beneficiaries of the expected surge of liquidity as OECD central banks ease will be the more domestically-oriented and faster-growing large EM economies like India and China, but even these markets will have to face jitters as Wall Street gets more and more nervous on the outlook for the US.
The longer-term trend towards these large emerging markets is clear but we will have a lot more choppiness then investors are currently anticipating to my mind.
Stay invested but be prepared for some air pockets ahead.

Beware! Stressful job may cause depression

London, Aug 2 (IANS) Young adults who do stressful job may face the risk of depression and anxiety, according to a British study.

Researchers, studying behaviour of 1,000 people aged 32, found that 45 percent of new cases of depression and anxiety were attributable to stressful work.

The respondents included an actress, a brain surgeon, a teacher, a helicopter pilot, a dustbin man, a journalist and a policeman.

They were asked whether they had workload and time pressures, had to work longer hours than they would like, had too much work to do everything well, whether their job was hectic, if they were often unclear about what they had to do and they had to work too hard.

It was found that 10 percent of men and 14 percent of women in the study suffered a first episode of depression or anxiety over the yearlong study. But the risk was double in those with the highest-pressure jobs.

They defined a highly demanding job as involving a lack of control, long hours, non-negotiable deadlines, and a high volume of work.

Those taking part in the study were at an age where they were settling into their careers and are less likely to have opted out of less stressful jobs, says Maria Melchior, epidemiologist at the Institute of Psychiatry Kings College London.

The study, which appeared in international journal 'Psychological Medicine' looked at these people who had taken part in a major, long-term study being carried out in Dunedin, New Zealand, to follow their progress through life, reported the online edition of BBC News.

Experts said employers needed to do more to protect workers' mental health.

Depression is a mental disorder marked by altered mood. This may occur daily with the addition of diminished interest or pleasure in most or all activities, said British scientists.

Poor appetite or weight loss, or weight gain, insomnia or hypersomnia, feelings of hopelessness, worthlessness or inappropriate guilt, difficulties with concentration and thinking, and recurrent thoughts of death or suicidal ideas are some of the symptoms of depression.

Anxiety is an uncomfortable emotional state in which one perceives danger, feels powerless and experiences tension in preparation for an expected danger.

Physical symptoms include increased heart rate, irregular breathing, trembling, and sweating.

This happens when people get flushed up

hai friends this what happens when all people with stupidity come to gather and celeberate

watch in this

http://www.esnips.com/doc/93a41988-cc1b-4d56-9407-63a5fad9af45/chiru-powerful-speech

UNCOVERING THE TRUTH OF MONALISA( DA VINCHI GIRL)

The woman behind Leonardo da Vinci’s Mona Lisa painting may be buried near a now derelict building in the heart of Florence, according to archival documents.

The exact location of Mona Lisa’s burial site, the convent of Sant’Orsola, was just a about 900 feet away from the house of the artist’s father, according to the historian, Giuseppe Pallanti.

“The mystery of Mona Lisa’s identity is over. My study shows that she did exist indeed,” Pallanti told Florence’s daily La Nazione.
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The author of two books on the Mona Lisa, Pallanti has identified her as Lisa Gherardini, the wife of the wealthy Florentine silk merchant, Francesco del Giocondo.

Pallanti’s research supports a claim first made in 1550 by Giorgio Vasari. In his writing, Lives of the Artists, the 16th century painter and art historian named Lisa Gherardini Del Giocondo as the subject of the portrait.

Among many theories, it has been suggested that Del Giocondo commissioned Leonardo for the painting to mark his wife’s second pregnancy when she was about 24.

Indeed, “La Gioconda,” as Italians call the Mona Lisa, has been puzzling art lovers since the portrait was completed around 1506.

Attempts to solve the enigma around her famous smile as well as her identity, have included theories that she was the artist’s mother, a noblewoman, a courtesan, even a prostitute.

Theories also abound that the sitter was happily pregnant, or affected by various diseases ranging from facial paralysis to compulsive gnashing of teeth.

The newly discovered documents show that Leonardo’s father — a local notary, Ser Piero da Vinci — and Lisa’s family were neighbors, living about 10 feet away from each other in Via Ghibellina.

According to Pallanti’s research, Lisa married Francesco del Giocondo in 1495, when she was 16 years old. Ser Francesco, who was 14 years her senior, had lost his first wife, Camilla Rucellai, the previous year.

The couple had five children: Piero, Andrea, Giocondo, Camilla and Marietta.

Pallanti found Ser Francesco’s will and was able to reconstruct Lisa’s last years. The will was signed by the notary Ser Piero, confirming that Leonardo’s father and Lisa’s husband knew each other.



http://dsc.discovery.com/news/2007/01/19/monalisa_his.html?category=history&guid=20070119134500

THE LEGEND OF TELUGU PEOPLE NTR'S UGADI SPEECH

This is the speach of the legent nadamuri taraka ramarao when he was back to power in 1994 on uagadi( telugu new year), this shows how he strived to make telugu people so prominent in india when the then congress cm's used to sit near the feet of centeral leaders for making money.

see this is so inspring and its in telugu

Is this the right way to face terrorism

What do u think ?


http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=5034103744788985248&q=saddam+hussain+death&hl=en

Want to Call abroad for Free check then ==>>you should check this out

http://www.jajah.com

register ur mobile/landline phone with ur email id

register ur friends mobile/landline with another email id

just login and call to ur friends mobile using the site.

enjoy ur 30 min free call per day



srikanth sakhamuri

ITS ABOUT FIDEL CASTRO==>> CUBA'S ALL TIME HERO

PLEASE SEE IT IN 'IE' OR INSTALL FONT(TELUGU- EENADU) IN MOZILLA


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wann watch cricket ==>> india VS south africa

wann like to watch cricket have fun in this link


http://www.onlinemedia.in/live_video/indsa.htm

rebel is back

Rebel is back

He is ready to fight

for you people.

This blog is going to write all about making india the best place and to praise all rebels whom mother INDIA gave birth.